Tag Archives: economy
Worst since Pearl Harbor: debt blow for US economy
US budget deficit has moved from a surplus at the turn of the millennium to a deficit of 11% by 2009
Shares fell sharply on Wall Street today after the ratings agency S&P issued a warning to the US government about its soaring budget deficit.
In a move that surprised and rattled the financial markets, S&P said it was cutting its long-term outlook on America from stable to negative.
The ratings agency said it was taking the step because the US had, in comparison to other nations given the coveted AAA rating, “very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the path to addressing these is not clear to us”.
The White House said it disagreed with the S&P judgement and insisted that the Obama administration would reach agreement with Congress over a way to reduce the US budget deficit, which has moved from a surplus at the turn of the millennium to a deficit of 11% by 2009. But the ratings agency said the gap between the White House and its Republican opponents remained “wide”, adding that it believed there was at least a one in three chance that “we could lower our long-term rating on the US within two years.”
In early trading in New York, the Dow Jones industrial average had lost nearly 250 points – 2% – with the dollar weaker on the foreign exchanges and yields rising on US Treasury bills. The FTSE 100 in London was also down 2% or 126 points at 5869.
The S&P warning shot to the US authorities mirrored the outlook change delivered to the UK in May 2009, which demanded that the UK government take action to rein in the budget deficit. Analysts said they would be watching closely to see whether the other ratings agencies – Moody’s and Fitch followed suit. US economy Economics Stock markets US Congress United States US politics Obama administration Larry Elliott guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2011 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds
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The congress and the economy
President Obama misled his followers by telling them before the election that the economy will recover in a short period of time. History has proven that this type of financial crisis takes any where from eight to ten… George Santana April 17, 2011
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Can G-20 Prevent a Currency War?
Filed under: Economy , Currency
Global finance mandarins get another chance this week to defuse international currency tensions as a festering dispute over exchange rates overshadows debate about reforming the world economy.
Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 rich and emerging nations, along with key officials from international finance and lending organizations, meet Friday and Saturday in the South Korean city of Gyeongju. Their deputies meet Thursday.
The gathering comes just two weeks after they failed at a meeting in Washington to iron out differences that have led to fears the world could descend into a so-called currency war that causes another downturn.
In such a scenario, countries devalue their currencies to gain a competitive advantage over competitors in a less-than-robust world economy that has yet to fully recover from the effects of the global financial meltdown two years ago. Trade barriers are erected in response, hitting international commerce and sending the economic recovery into reverse.
The Gyeongju meeting also offers the last chance to calm such anxieties ahead of a summit of the group’s leaders scheduled next month in Seoul.
A ‘Real Test’ for G-20 David Cohen, head of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore, said the finance meeting represents a “real test” for the G-20 given the prominence it has assumed in leading the global economy.
“I think there’s a lot of pressure on them,” Cohen said. “I think they understand that it’s in no country’s interest to revert to a currency war, to all the protectionism that would accompany that.”
Currencies, long a source of contention, face renewed focus amid broader strains in the global economy left over from the financial crisis.
China, the world’s No. 2 economy, is under renewed pressure over its management of the yuan, which the U.S., the European Union and Japan say is undervalued, giving its exporters an unfair competitive advantage.
The broad weakening of the dollar amid poor prospects for the U.S. economy and the outlook for possible further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is another factor adding to the strain.
Investment Inflating Asian Currencies And so-called hot money investment flows into emerging countries in search of higher yields than can be fetched in the developed world have turned up the heat on those currencies, particularly in Asian nations such as South Korea.
Some governments as a result have tried to stem currency appreciation through measures including direct intervention in markets or by imposing controls on capital or taxes on foreign investment.
Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda of Japan, which is dealing with a strong yen that threatens to derail the country’s tepid economic recovery, expressed hope that the G-20 can come up with a creative solution to the dispute over currencies.
“Different people will have their own perspectives on the issue, so I hope this leads to good ideas,” he said Tuesday, adding that “excessive capital flows into emerging economies” are part of the problem.
“The question now is what to do about it,” he said. What’s Fair Play, in Currency Terms?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the Wall Street Journal that part of the problem is “there is no established sense of what’s fair” amid a diverse currency landscape.
“In the first category are those undervalued by any measure, including China,” he said in an interview Wednesday. “In the second are emerging economies with flexible exchange rates that intervene or impose taxes to try to reduce the risks of significant overvaluation, of bubbles and inflationary pressure. And then there are the major currencies, which are roughly in alignment now.”
The currency problem also threatens to distract the G-20 from concentrating on its principal task of coordinating polices to bolster the world economy as well as shore up the financial system with tougher rules and standards aimed at avoiding a repeat of the 2008 meltdown.
The meeting in scenic Gyeongju, once the capital of an ancient Korean kingdom, comes ahead of a summit of the group’s leaders scheduled next month in Seoul, where they plan to consider proposals such as strengthened capital requirements for banks.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who hosts that meeting, cautioned last week that failing to resolve the currency issue could stoke protectionism and harm the world economy. China Sees No Reason for G-20 to Discuss Currency
The G-20 has been around since 1999, but emerged as the key steering committee for the global economy in the wake of the financial crisis – supplanting the Group of Seven – as emerging countries demanded more say.
The forum includes advanced economies such as the United States, Germany, Japan, Britain and Australia as well as emerging ones like China, Turkey, Brazil, India and Mexico.
China, which has drawn persistent criticism over the yuan, would have a key role to play in achieving any currency accord. Beijing, however, has said it sees no reason for the exchange rate issue to even be taken up by the G-20.
The exchange rate issue is further complicated by signs of strain and finger-pointing within the G-20 itself. For example, Japan, which intervened in currency markets last month for the first time in six years to stem the yen’s gains, has openly criticized Seoul’s currency policy.
South Korean electronics and auto companies are key rivals of Japan’s in global markets and have benefited from the won’s relative weakness since 2008. %a, %d %b %Y %H:%i:%s EST
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Fed had record 2010 profit, Treasury got the bulk
The Federal Reserve earned a record $81.7 billion in 2010, largely on investments made to help the economy and banks weather the 2007-2009 financial crisis, and turned the bulk of it over to the U.S. Treasury.
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Soros says US spending cuts to brake economy
Public spending cuts forced by Congress would be a serious brake on U.S. economic growth, hitting jobs and demand, billionaire investor George Soros said on Wednesday.
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Regulators close small Ill. bank; makes 23 in 2011
Regulators have shut down a small bank in Illinois, raising to 23 the number of U.S. bank failures this year after the limping economy and mounting soured loans felled 157 banks in 2010
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Bernanke Doesn’t See China Treasury Holdings As ‘Systemic Risk’
is keeping the value of the yuan artificially low to boost its economy through exports. “They take whatever they need to take in order to keep their currency at the desired level,” …
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CNN – Geithner Sees Gradual Improvement In Hiring
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner Offered An Optimistic Outlook For The Economy Wednesday, Although He Acknowledged That The Job Market Will Take Time To Recover.
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Swan adds to economy’s woes: Hockey
Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey says the government risks hurting consumer confidence by talking down the economy.
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Banker Pay Fueled Risk That Hobbled Economy, Crisis Panel Says
Wall Street firms’ soaring pay pushed traders to disregard risk and limited regulators’ ability to lure top talent to police banks, according to a panel probing the origins of the financial crisis.
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